Review and Analysis of New District Maps
On February 22, 2022, LWVMN held an event to present an analysis of the new congressional and legislative maps adopted by the Minnesota Special Redistricting Court Panel. A recording of this event is now available. Below is a bulleted summary of the analysis of the new congressional districts. The Legislative Coordinating Commission Geographic Information Systems office has published copies of the maps and related information for both the congressional and legislative districts.
General Notes on Both Congressional and Legislative
While the panel did not explicitly adopt a “least changed” approach, they did clearly adopt at least something similar to it: “Simply put, we are not positioned to draw entirely new congressional districts, as the legislature could choose to do. Rather, we start with the existing districts, changing them as necessary to remedy the constitutional defect by applying politically neutral redistricting principles. Still, our restrained approach does not leave any congressional district unchanged. Nor does it mean that all Minnesotans will view the changes as insubstantial.”
The panel used the following redistricting criteria to draw the map:
Compliance with Voting Rights Act and 14th and 15th Amendments
Respect American Indian reservations
Convenient and contiguous territory
Respect political subdivisions
Preserve communities of interest
Drawn without purpose of protecting, promoting, or defeating any incumbent, candidate, or party
Reasonably compact
The panel noted that population growth was driven by BIPOC communities in Minnesota.
Regarding political fairness and competitiveness:
The exact analysis depends on particular measure and data, but all maps generally favor Republicans slightly.
To some degree this is to be expected because DFL voters concentrate (“natural packing”) in metro areas with Republican voters being more effectively distributed.
Whether that slight advantage to Republicans is too much or unfair will depend on who you ask.
Senate Republicans feel the maps are fair; there have been no public complaints from DFL leaders.
One analyst (Dave Wasserman from Cook Political) says the congressional map remains 4 Republican, 3 Democratic, and 1 competitive district.
One analyst (Aaron Booth from Decision Desk HQ) has called the congressional map a “borderline GOP gerrymander.”
Others might argue there are up to 3 “competitive” congressional districts (1, 2, and 8), and may have differing opinions as to which is the most competitive.
Both chambers will remain flippable and could go either way in any election.
The new maps paired many incumbents, which has resulted in several incumbents retiring.
New Congressional Districts
General Notes
Three underpopulated districts had to expand geographically to gain population; five overpopulated districts had to shrink geographically to reduce population. The ideal population of each district is 713,312, with a maximum population deviation of 1 person.
CD1 – Rural, Southern Minnesota
Needed to expand.
The panel characterized this district as being southern and primarily rural Minnesota, with Rochester acting as the population center.
The panel expanded the district north into Wabasha and Goodhue counties, because of their “significant ties to Rochester and predominantly rural,” and also because the counties share karst soil regions with other counties in CD1.
The panel noted that I-90 connects the agricultural, processing and manufacturing, and medical industries as well as BIPOC communities in southern Minnesota.
The district also dropped parts of Le Sueur and Rice counties, as well as Cottonwood and Brown, in order to equalize population.
CD2 – South Metro Suburbs and Exurbs
This district was originally overpopulated. But because it gave Wabasha and Goodhue counties to CD1, it now needed to pick up some population.
The panel characterized this district as “increasingly suburban and exurban character.”
The panel re-split Woodbury so the southern part of the city is in CD2 because “southern Woodbury increasingly associates with its neighbors in south Washington County—sharing schools and other services.”
New Prague is finally in one congressional district after several decades of being split between CD1 and CD2.
The panel then expanded the district along U.S. 169 and Minnesota river, gaining Le Sueur County and part of Rice County, particularly Northfield and surrounding area “to preserve its connection with the Twin Cities and their suburbs.”
CD3 – Hennepin County Suburbs
This district was already overpopulated, but also had to take on new population from CD5 (see below).
The panel characterized this district as being focused on Hennepin County suburbs west of Minneapolis.
To equalize the population, the district lost Carver County, but expanded north into Anoka County to gain the City of Anoka (joining Coon Rapids, which was already in the district).
The panel made these choices because it felt that the new district “respect[ed] political subdivisions and retain[ed] its character as a suburban, Hennepin County-centered district.”
CD4 – St. Paul and Eastern Suburbs
This district was overpopulated and needed to contract.
The panel noted that this district focuses on St. Paul and suburbs to Minnesota’s eastern border.
The panel chose to “shift existing splits in Washington County,” with central Washington County remaining in the district because of its suburban character, with the more rural portions of Washington County being given to CD8.
CD5 – Minneapolis and First-Ring Suburbs
This district was overpopulated and needed to contract.
The panel noted that this district centered around Minneapolis.
The panel had been asked to merge and unite both Brooklyn Center and Brooklyn Park into CD5, but it declined to do so: “We decline more dramatic changes that are inconsistent with our restrained judicial approach.” “But the joined population of the two cities is too large to fit entirely within either the third district or the fifth district without drastically altering either district. Accordingly, we preserve each city whole in its existing district.”
The panel did, however, move Hopkins and portions of Edina into CD3 with suburban neighbors.
CD6 – Metro Outer Suburbs and Exurbs
This district needed to contract.
Because of its “increasingly suburban character,” the district wraps around the western and northern metro areas, as well as extends along the I-94 corridor to the St. Cloud area.
In effect, the district became more rural, with the panel writing, “We move rural northern Washington County and additional areas of rural Stearns County into more rural neighboring districts. And we expand the district on the southern end, making rapidly developing Carver County whole.”
CD7 – Rural and Agricultural Minnesota
This district was underpopulated and needed to expand.
The panel noted that the district was rural in character and primarily agricultural in industry.
To equalize populations, the new district added portions of old districts that the panel believed to be sufficiently agricultural and rural: “The additions make Cottonwood County whole within the seventh district, bring in Morrison and Wadena Counties and more of rural Stearns County, and portions of Hubbard and Brown Counties. These areas share the district’s core communities of interest—agriculture, agriculture-related processing and manufacturing, other light industry, and educational and other services.”
While CD8 expanded westward into several counties previously in CD7, the panel still wrote that the “district’s expansion honors the well-recognized distinctions between northwest and northeast Minnesota.”
CD8 – Woods and Waters
This district was underpopulated and needed to expand. This created a problem because, “[w]ith an international border to the north and a state border to the east, the eighth district may only expand south or west. The new district does both.”
The panel chose to expand to the west and to the south to portions of the state that it believed shared the district’s rural character and its timber and tourism industries. The panel also recognized the “woods and water” geography and economy of the district.
Notably, the new district eliminates the old problem of the City of Bemidji and Beltrami County being split into two different congressional districts.
And perhaps most importantly, the new CD8 finally unites the reservations of the White Earth, Red Lake, and Leech Lake nations into a single congressional district.